Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.018510 0.020985 0.023674 0.026813 0.030378 0.034302 0.038953
2025-06-01 0.014679 0.018095 0.022129 0.027251 0.033589 0.041186 0.051001
2025-06-08 0.012316 0.016065 0.020752 0.027052 0.035317 0.045816 0.060207
2025-06-15 0.011030 0.015071 0.020364 0.027822 0.038087 0.051769 0.071468
2025-06-22 0.009468 0.013461 0.018905 0.026890 0.038348 0.054263 0.078170
2025-06-29 0.008402 0.012377 0.017994 0.026536 0.039258 0.057597 0.086217
2025-07-06 0.007369 0.011212 0.016818 0.025628 0.039200 0.059437 0.092138
2025-07-13 0.006971 0.010932 0.016890 0.026547 0.041906 0.065553 0.105044
2025-07-20 0.006563 0.010585 0.016810 0.027198 0.044218 0.071219 0.117725
2025-07-27 0.006241 0.010339 0.016852 0.028021 0.046848 0.077573 0.132070
2025-08-03 0.005753 0.009770 0.016318 0.027837 0.047773 0.081187 0.142106
2025-08-10 0.005350 0.009303 0.015902 0.027799 0.048917 0.085223 0.153187
2025-08-17 0.004903 0.008730 0.015272 0.027358 0.049361 0.088161 0.162739
2025-08-24 0.004637 0.008452 0.015129 0.027764 0.051351 0.094007 0.178173
2025-08-31 0.004307 0.008025 0.014679 0.027564 0.052196 0.097821 0.190124
2025-09-07 0.004148 0.007898 0.014759 0.028348 0.054940 0.105376 0.209957
2025-09-14 0.003772 0.007328 0.013969 0.027399 0.054259 0.106336 0.216829
2025-09-21 0.003507 0.006949 0.013505 0.027038 0.054688 0.109462 0.228326
2025-09-28 0.003199 0.006460 0.012789 0.026112 0.053891 0.110067 0.234626
2025-10-05 0.003127 0.006436 0.012985 0.027049 0.056991 0.118833 0.259022
2025-10-12 0.003029 0.006350 0.013048 0.027712 0.059569 0.126724 0.282255
2025-10-19 0.002953 0.006305 0.013190 0.028552 0.062592 0.135802 0.308973
2025-10-26 0.002785 0.006049 0.012869 0.028364 0.063347 0.140032 0.325084